TL;DR: Recent rains are insufficient as parts of New Zealand remain dry. El Niño ends, but dry conditions persist due to dominant westerly weather. April may see more rain, with potential shifts in weather patterns providing hope for drought relief.
Rain Falls, Yet Drought Persists
Recent rainfall has not been sufficient to overcome the dry conditions affecting many regions of New Zealand. Although it has rained this month, areas still display a stark ‘late summer/early autumn’ appearance.
Weather Patterns and Dryness
Despite the end of El Niño, the expected westerly autumn weather hasn’t made a noticeable impact. Drier conditions persist particularly in the eastern and northern parts of both main islands.
Areas in Need
Soil moisture maps indicate significant dryness across various regions:
- Eastern Northland
- Eastern Auckland
- Hauraki Plains
- Coromandel Peninsula
- Bay of Plenty
- Gisborne
- East Cape
- Hawke’s Bay
- Eastern Manawatū
- Southern coastal Taranaki to Whanganui
- Wairarapa
- Southern inland Marlborough
- Large parts of Canterbury
These areas are desperately ‘thirsty’ and would need around 100mm of rain to alleviate the situation.
Contrasting Wet Regions
Conversely, regions such as the western side of Northland, western Waikato, and King Country, including the northern half of Taranaki, northern coastal Marlborough, Golden Bay/Tākaka, Southland, and Central Otago are experiencing wetter conditions than usual. Southland and King Country, in particular, have received heavy rainfall recently.
Ideal Weather Solutions
The best-case scenario for addressing the drought would involve a northerly or northeasterly rain event that could saturate these parched areas.
Forecast Challenges
Currently, the wet easterly flows are positioned north of New Zealand, aligning more with Brisbane and southern Queensland, where heavy rainfall of 100mm to 200mm is expected. In contrast, New Zealand’s eastern regions face almost no rain in the coming week due to persistent high pressure and westerly conditions.
Outlook for April
There is a chance for April to end with wetter conditions as the El Niño pattern fades, potentially breaking the high-pressure dominance west of New Zealand. If the high over the Tasman shifts southward, it could merge with wet easterly flows to create beneficial rain for New Zealand.
Long-Term Predictions
Long-range models suggest potential rainfall, but uncertainty remains high, and it is too early to count on these forecasts definitively. Yet, the models indicate a possible shift in weather patterns that might finally address the dry conditions in New Zealand.
Current Conditions
The weather remains mild, with a noticeable absence of frosts, although a few have occurred in the last few days.
