As the cyclone season, only six weeks old, has already seen three severe tropical cyclones, New Zealand’s agricultural sector is facing an unusual El Niño weather pattern this year.
This pattern is atypical for any given year, especially during an El Niño phase. Both NIWA (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research) and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) have recently updated their summer forecasts to reflect this anomaly, aligning with what the private sector in both countries has been indicating for months.
The alignment of WeatherWatch, NIWA, and BoM across Australasia brings a sense of relief and clarity. Despite the initial delay in NIWA’s forecast adjustment, the consensus now is that parts of New Zealand are beginning to dry out, although this may not be immediately apparent.
However, all forecasters, including WeatherWatch, misjudged the weather outlook for the eastern North Island, where unexpected and repetitive rain occurred. This deviation from forecasts serves as a reminder that while El Niño patterns have global implications, local variations can still occur, especially in a country as geographically diverse as New Zealand.
Running a farm requires adaptability to these weather uncertainties. Long-range forecasts, while helpful, are not.
