Australia has witnessed a significant uptick in beef exports to the United States, with a 72% increase from 2022 levels. This surge can be attributed to the robust American demand for lean cow trimmings, which has positively influenced the 90CL imported cow indicator.
Despite the increase in supply, the 90CL indicator has consistently remained above the previous year’s levels.
The strong demand for Australian trimmings in the US is a result of the ongoing American herd destocking, which has impacted domestic beef production. The 90CL indicator, which typically aligns closely with its domestic counterpart, has seen a divergence this year.
The domestic premium over imported 90CL beef has reached a 31% difference, marking the largest gap in a decade. These indicators, which usually track similar commodity-grade beef, suggest a potential boost in the value of Australian 90CL due to anticipated declines in US beef production.
Furthermore, the price dynamics between domestic and imported 90CL beef are expected to converge. Given the projected decline in American beef production, US beef prices are likely to remain elevated.
This scenario will continue to support Australian cow prices, especially as Australian cattle slaughter rates increase. The deficit in American beef production will play a crucial role in driving demand for heightened Australian production.
Tim Jackson, MLA Global Supply Analyst, provided these insights, emphasising the significance of the US market for Australian beef exports and the potential implications for the industry.
