The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released in December, indicates a modest upward revision in the production forecasts for red meat and poultry.
The report highlights an increase in the 2023 forecasts for pork and broiler production in the fourth quarter, contributing to the overall rise. This increase is partially offset by a slight decrease in turkey production forecasts.
Beef production forecasts for 2023 remain steady. This stability is attributed to a balance between a lower expected cattle slaughter rate and an increase in dressed weights.
The pork production forecast for 2023 has been revised upwards, driven by an uptick in slaughter rates. Similarly, broiler production is expected to see a rise, based on the latest slaughter and hatchery data.
Looking ahead to 2024, the WASDE report projects an increase in beef production. This is due to anticipated higher cattle slaughter rates and increased dressed weights. However, pork production forecasts for 2024 are unchanged, pending further insights from the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which is scheduled for release on December 22.
For the first quarter of 2024, broiler production is expected to see a slight decline, as suggested by recent hatchery data. Turkey production is also forecasted to decrease, influenced by the latest hatchery data and weaker expected returns.
Additionally, egg production is projected to face a reduction, primarily due to recent outbreaks of High Pathogenic Avian Influenza.
In summary, the December WASDE report presents a nuanced picture of the red meat and poultry production landscape, with varying trends across different types of meat and poultry for the upcoming year.
