The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its forecasts for red meat and poultry production in 2023 and 2024, indicating various changes across the sectors.
Key Highlights from the WASDE Report
Beef Production: The report notes a decrease in beef production for the current year, attributing this to reduced steer and heifer slaughter. However, for 2024, an increase in beef production is anticipated, driven by higher steer and heifer placements, particularly in the first half of the year.
Pork Production: Pork production has been impacted by lighter-dressed weights in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the current year, leading to a downward revision in production forecasts.
Poultry Production: Broiler production is expected to decline, based on Q4 data indicating reduced production. The growth in broiler production is projected to slow down, and turkey production is expected to decrease in 2024, responding to market weaknesses.
Trade Projections and Price Forecasts
Beef Trade: The report forecasts an increase in beef imports for both 2023 and 2024, influenced by recent trade data and expected stronger imports from Australia.
Pork Trade: While pork imports are projected to increase for 2023, exports are expected to decrease. The forecasts for 2024 remain unchanged.
Poultry Trade: Broiler exports are anticipated to decline for both 2023 and 2024, attributed to weaker international demand and tighter domestic supplies. Turkey’s exports are expected to increase in 2023 but decrease in 2024, correlating with reduced domestic production.
Price Forecasts: The price forecasts for cattle and hogs remain unchanged for 2023 and 2024. However, broiler prices are expected to decrease in 2023 and increase in 2024. Turkey’s prices are projected to decrease in both years due to weak demand.
The WASDE report provides a comprehensive outlook on the meat and poultry sectors, reflecting the dynamic nature of agricultural production and trade. These forecasts are crucial for industry stakeholders to plan and adjust their strategies in response to changing market conditions.
