TL;DR: Due to high food-away-from-home inflation, home cooking is on the rise. In April 2024, food and beverage prices increased 1.9% year-on-year, with fresh meat prices up 0.7%. Beef, turkey, and exotic meats saw price rises, while lamb and sausage prices fell. April meat sales dropped 2.1% due to Easter timing but showed yearly growth. May holidays like Cinco de Mayo and Memorial Day may boost sales.
Home-Centric Life
Due to high inflation in food-away-from-home, people are staying home more. Circana’s Darren Seifer noted that restaurant traffic in the first quarter fell 2%, showing consumer anxiety about spending on dining out.
Financial Pressures
In an April study by 210 Analytics among 1,700 U.S. consumers, 34% reported being worse off financially than a year ago. Despite mild food-at-home inflation this year, nine in ten shoppers worry about grocery and restaurant prices.
Households facing greater financial pressure turn to home-cooked meals to balance spending. These families focus more on price and sales promotions when grocery shopping, often choosing private-brand items and being willing to change their purchases. They watch sales across multiple stores closely.
Households with better finances dine out more often.
Easter Impact
The shift of Easter from the second quarter last year to the first quarter this year affected April numbers. The week ending 3/31 showed significant year-on-year volume increases across departments. However, the week ending 4/7/2024 reflected a gap compared to last year’s Easter.
Inflation Insights
In April 2024, the price per unit for all foods and beverages in the Circana MULO+ universe increased 1.9% compared to April 2023. The MULO+ universe, including more retailers in e-commerce, grocery, club, DTC delivery, and other channels, expanded by an average of 15% across total CPG. All historical data and geographies have been updated to MULO+.
Prices in the fresh perimeter rose 0.7% in April versus a year ago, while centre-store grocery prices increased 3.4%. April prices for food and beverages were 33% higher than pre-pandemic levels.
The average price per pound in the meat department, across all cuts and kinds, was $4.64 in April, up 4.1% year-on-year. Easter sales shifted into March, impacting holiday-related promotions more significantly in April 2023. Processed meat, with higher prices, reflected different Easter promotion timings.
Meat Price Movements
April brought varied price changes. Beef, turkey, exotics (including bison), and smoked ham saw price increases per pound. Chicken prices remained flat, while lamb, packaged lunch meat, and sausage prices decreased.
Meat Sales
After strong sales for three months, April saw a drop in pound sales due to Easter timing. Overall, pounds were down 2.1%, driven by processed meat. In the 52-week view, pounds were up 0.5% and dollars increased by 5.4% year-on-year.
The first week of April experienced a 9.3% decrease in dollars and a 15.1% decline in volume. However, the second through fourth weeks of April showed pound growth, indicating strong fresh meat demand.
Assortment
The meat department assortment, measured in weekly items per store, averaged 426 SKUs in April 2024. This remains about 40 to 50 items below pre-pandemic levels.
Fresh Meat Sales by Protein
Despite the Easter impact and inflation, fresh meat sales were strong in April. Beef pounds increased 2.3% year-on-year in April and 0.3% in the full-year view. Only holiday meats like turkey and lamb saw pound declines in April.
Veal sales have been weak in recent years. In the 52-week view, pound sales increased 1.1% year-on-year, with chicken, lamb, and fresh exotic meats (including bison) performing best.
Processed Meat
April processed meat sales reached $2.3 billion. Due to Easter’s impact on smoked ham sales, both dollars and pounds were down year-on-year. However, the 52-week view showed flat pound sales for smoked ham. Bacon and dinner sausage saw increased pound sales over the full year, with dinner sausage performing well in April.
Grinds
Ground meats, especially chicken, performed well in April. Ground beef pound sales increased 5.1% in April 2024 versus April 2023, despite beef category inflation. Full-year pound sales rose 1.6%. Ground chicken and pork had strong months, while ground lamb had a different and more favourable performance in the 52-week view.
What’s Next?
The 210 Analytics survey found that holidays, special occasions, and entertainment are the top reasons shoppers spend extra. This could mean premium purchases or additional items for the occasion.
May has significant holidays like Cinco de Mayo, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day, the start of the grilling season. According to April Circana’s research, 53% of Americans plan special activities for Memorial Day, with 34% gathering with friends and family and 26% grilling.
Retailers have also created their own holidays and occasions to attract shoppers.
Younger generations focus more on nutrition, making it important to highlight nutrients on packaging. Self-care is a growing sales driver, leading to extra spending on favourite brands or types.
The next Circana, 210 Analytics, and Hillphoenix report will be released in mid-June 2024, covering May sales trends.
