Rabobank’s Q1 2024 poultry report presents a cautiously optimistic outlook for the poultry industry, predicting a growth of 1.5% to 2%. This marks a slight improvement from the 1.1% growth in 2023, with Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America expected to drive this expansion.
Nan-Dirk Mulder, Rabobank’s Senior Analyst of Animal Protein, underscores the necessity for producers to balance supply growth with the slow demand growth, especially in markets like the United States, Thailand, Indonesia, China, and the European Union, which are currently dealing with oversupply.
The report indicates that consumer price sensitivity will persist, influenced by the broader economic context. This situation requires the provision of affordable poultry products. Poultry is expected to continue benefiting from consumer downtrading in meat types and product categories.
As wages adjust to previous inflation levels, value-based market opportunities are likely to re-emerge, though the industry will still face challenges due to high costs and potential volatility in 2024.
Feed costs are expected to decrease slightly in 2024, but global geopolitical issues, including the war in Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, and weather events, as well as oil and gas price fluctuations, could impact the market.
A slowdown in the rapid growth of global trade in the poultry sector, seen over the past two years, is also noted. Trade is expected to grow, mainly in raw chicken meat, but will face challenges. Market recovery is anticipated to be gradual and buoyed by improving consumer spending power in key markets like the EU, UK, and US.
The potential impact of avian influenza on the 2024 poultry market is a significant concern, with early outbreaks already affecting production and trade in the United States and Europe. The report calls for the industry to maintain high biosecurity levels.
In summary, Rabobank advises poultry producers to focus on efficiency, procurement, and biosecurity in a challenging market environment. The report also suggests that improving consumer spending power could lead to increased demand for premium and value-added poultry products.
