The international pork trade is undergoing considerable shifts, marked by escalating competition among principal exporters, reveals a recent study by Rabobank.
Factors Influencing Competitive Advantage
Countries such as Brazil and the United States, which have adopted cost-effective production models, are gaining a competitive upper hand.
In contrast, Europe’s market position is becoming increasingly unstable due to its amplified focus on animal welfare and sustainability, influenced by consumer preferences and regulatory mandates.
“Strategies for effective disease management could act as a vital competitive differentiator, especially given the persistent disease-related challenges in the sector,” the report specifies.
Disease Mitigation and Emerging Technologies
The pork industry is wrestling with enduring disease-related issues, the consequences of which are moulded by trade policies and mitigation strategies.
“Cutting-edge advancements in vaccine research and gene editing are being scrutinised across various regions, potentially providing certain producers with a competitive edge,” the report articulates.
African Swine Fever (ASF) remains a pressing concern, directly impacting Asian importers and creating knock-on effects on European export trends.
Ascendant Market Players and Economic Variables
Brazil is rising as a key player in the global pork trade, largely attributable to its efficient production methods.
“Several economic components, including foreign exchange rates, shipping fees, labour costs, and the expenses associated with pig production, play a crucial role in shaping the competitive landscape for pork exporters,” the report observes.
In 2022, Brazil was responsible for 24% of China’s pork imports, cementing its status as China’s second-largest provider.
North American Contributions to the Market
The United States and Canada remain steadfast economic pork exporters, bolstered by affordable feed and strategic market access.
“Efforts centred on sustainability, and the ongoing consolidation within the industry could potentially enhance the value of pork exports from these North American nations,” suggests the report.
Nonetheless, the U.S. and Canada are anticipated to remain pivotal players in the international pork trade, particularly within the framework of North American commerce.
Asian Market Dynamics
China is reorienting its pork production strategy to aim for greater self-sufficiency while maintaining its global trade role.
Despite reaching a self-sufficiency rate of 95% in 2022, China is expected to uphold its annual pork imports at a level between 2.5 and 3 million metric tonnes.
“Southeast Asian nations, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, persist as essential importers, although the market is contracting due to heightened competition among exporters,” adds the report.
Outlook on Future Consumption
The Rabobank study projects an increase in global pork consumption up to 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 0.7% from 2022 to 2030.
“Elements like easing inflation, the expected recovery from ASF in Asia by 2024, and socio-economic growth in diverse regions are set to fuel this rising trend,” the report concludes.
While a decline in consumption is foreseen in Europe, this is likely to be offset by growth in other global areas.
In summary, the Rabobank report offers an exhaustive insight into the complex and ever-changing dynamics of the global pork trade, shaped by various factors such as production costs, disease control measures, and regional market fluctuations.
