The poultry sector is persistently grappling with the challenges posed by the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), even amidst enhanced protective measures. The recent increase in HPAI cases and the subsequent culling of numerous hens have sparked concerns. However, the effect on egg product prices has not been as severe as the record highs of 2022.
From the initial detection of HPAI in a commercial egg-laying flock on 3rd November 2023, 16 instances have been reported across five states, leading to the culling of about 12.9 million laying hens by 28th December.
The affected states include California, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, and Minnesota, with California experiencing the highest number of impacted facilities. These losses represent roughly 4% of the United States’ total egg-laying flock, which stood at 322 million as per the US Department of Agriculture’s 1st December estimate.
The industry also faced challenges with HPAI detections in two commercial table egg pullet facilities in California and Ohio, impacting over 1.5 million pullets. This loss, approximately 1.2% of the total pullets as of 1st December, is likely to delay the replenishment of commercial egg-laying facilities.
The 2023 HPAI outbreak differs from 2022’s in terms of the number of hens lost and the timing of production losses in relation to seasonal demand.
Brian Moscogiuri, a global trade strategist at Eggs Unlimited, observed that the 2023 outbreaks started later in the year, aligning with a seasonal dip in demand for dried egg products and reduced sales to foodservice. This timing contrasts with the spring 2022 outbreaks, which coincided with higher summer demand and led to record-high shell egg prices by year-end.
During the 2023 outbreak, shell egg prices fluctuated significantly between November and December, but did not reach the record highs of December 2022. Prices for dried egg products remained relatively stable, reflecting the seasonal demand decrease.
Moscogiuri anticipates that HPAI will continue to affect egg and egg product prices in the upcoming months, particularly around Easter and as food manufacturers ramp up production of mayonnaise and salad dressings in spring.
The United States produces approximately 8 billion table eggs monthly, a figure that increased in 2023 as the industry recovered from the 2022 HPAI losses. However, the number of hens culled in December 2023 was more than double that of December 2022, underscoring the persistent challenge of HPAI.
HPAI, often spread by migrating wild birds, can also be transmitted between facilities without proper sanitation. Despite industry efforts to mitigate HPAI spread, the influence of wild birds remains a significant concern. Since the initial outbreak in February 2022, nearly 80 million birds of various species have been culled due to HPAI, affecting 1,059 flocks in 47 states, including 451 commercial flocks.
Looking forward to 2024, the impact of the spring wild bird migration on the poultry industry is a major uncertainty. There was a hiatus in commercial laying flock outbreaks from 20th December 2022 until early November 2023, although outbreaks in other species persisted throughout the year. Typically, the spring migration sees more HPAI outbreaks than the fall, but this pattern was not evident in 2023.
