TL;DR: April’s cattle feedlot report shows a 1.49% increase in inventory despite fewer cattle, with feedlots slowing turnover to maintain high inventories and heavier carcasses expected.
The latest report for April reveals that cattle inventories in feedlots have reached 11.82 million head, marking a 1.49% increase compared to last year. Despite a general decrease in cattle numbers, feedlot inventories are resisting a decline.
Gender Distribution Breakdown
On April 1, the steer inventory stood at 7.266 million head, showing a rise of 1.7% year-over-year. Heifer numbers were also up by 1.1% from last year, totalling 4.555 million head. Heifers now constitute 38.5% of the total, a decrease from 39.7% in January.
Heifer Trends
Over the last decade, the heifer percentage has remained high, although there is a recent trend indicating a slowdown in heifer feeding. Between 2015 and 2017, during a period of rapid herd expansion, heifer representation fell below 34%, averaging less than 33% across ten quarters. Expectations are set for a notable reduction in heifer feeding in the coming months.
Feedlot Placements and Marketings
March saw a 12.3% decline in feedlot placements year-over-year. The average monthly placements (12-month moving average) reached their lowest since April 2017. In the past six months, total placements have decreased by 2.3% year-over-year.
Despite reduced placements, feedlot inventories have been higher than in previous years for seven consecutive months. The main reason is a significant drop in marketing rates. Fewer cattle are being processed, and as a result, they stay longer in feedlots. In March, marketing fell by 13.7% year-over-year, and the average marketing rate was a mere 14.4% of the March 1 inventory.
Incentives and Future Projections
Feedlots are maintaining high inventories by slowing turnover rates, leading to longer feeding periods and heavier carcasses. Over the last four weeks, steer carcasses have averaged 25 pounds heavier than the previous year, with heifers surpassing 21 pounds. While there are limits to how much marketing can be slowed, efforts to increase carcass weights will likely continue. However, a decrease in feedlot inventories is anticipated in the upcoming months despite these efforts.
