The latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) and the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) presents a revised outlook for the nation’s agricultural exports in the fiscal year 2024. The updated figures suggest a downturn, with projections now standing at $169.5 billion, a decrease of $2.5 billion from earlier estimates made in August.
This adjustment in the forecast is primarily linked to expected reductions in several key export categories. Notably, there is a predicted decline in the exports of grains and feeds, alongside livestock, poultry, and dairy products. These sectors have traditionally been strongholds of U.S. agricultural exports, and their anticipated decrease marks a significant shift.
Contrasting this downward trend, the report identifies a bright spot in ethanol exports. These are projected to experience an uptick, increasing by $300 million to reach $3.6 billion.
This rise is attributed to an expected increase in export volumes, which is likely to outweigh the impact of lower unit values. In the realm of horticultural products, the export value is forecasted to maintain its current level of $39.5 billion, indicating stability in this sector.
Turning to imports, the fiscal year 2024 is set to see an escalation in U.S. agricultural imports. The projection is adjusted to $200 billion, up by $500 million from previous forecasts. This increase is largely driven by the robust U.S. dollar and sustained domestic demand for certain agricultural imports. Among these, beef and veal, vegetable oils, and grain products are identified as key contributors to the growth in import figures.
This report from the ERS and FAS sheds light on the evolving landscape of U.S. agricultural trade, underscoring the fluctuations and trends that are shaping the sector. The projections serve as a barometer for the agricultural industry, reflecting both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in the global market.
